| This week, we are delighted to introduce Peter Woolcott, Xia Liping, and Ralph Regenvanu, as our newest network members. We launched a new research vertical on Disruptive Technologies and Nuclear Risks, beginning with a policy brief by Manpreet Sethi that identifies four key pathways through which AI-enabled military systems could destabilise nuclear deterrence. We also published a new volume, edited by Dongkeun Lee, examining how middle-power countries from the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions assess and respond to escalation risks in the South China Sea. And, together with the Nautilus Institute and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, we featured a special report by George Perkovich on how to assess nuclear ‘threats’ in the twenty-first century.
As always, we highlight recent activities from our network, including analyses on Southeast Asia in an age of global uncertainty, the ROK-Japan summit, US-India relations, and lessons for Southeast Asia from the Venezuelan case. |
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APLN is pleased to welcome three new members to our network:
- Ambassador Peter Woolcott (Australia), Vice-Chancellor’s Professorial Fellow at Monash University and Australia’s former Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations in Geneva and to the Conference on Disarmament.
- Professor Xia Liping (China), Professor and Founding Dean of the School of Political Science & International Relations at Tongji University.
- Hon. Ralph Regenvanu (Vanuatu), Vanuatu’s Minister for Climate Change Adaptation, Energy, Environment, Meteorology, Geo-Hazards and Disaster Management.
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How Artificial Intelligence Impacts Deterrence Stability: A Realistic Assessment
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Manpreet Sethi outlines four ways in which AI-enabled military systems could undermine nuclear deterrence, including enhanced intelligence and targeting capabilities, cyber vulnerabilities in nuclear command, control and communications (NC3) systems, compressed decision-making timelines, and exaggerated perceptions of adversary strength. She argues that these risks can be mitigated by keeping AI as a decision-support tool rather than a replacement for human judgement, maintaining air gaps between early-warning systems and launch commands, and ensuring secure channels for crisis communication.
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External Stakeholders in the South China Sea:
Linking security in Asia and Europe?
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In this special volume, experts from South Korea, Japan, France, Germany, the UK and the Philippines examine how countries in Asia and Europe assess escalation risks in the South China Sea and the measures they are undertaking in response. They identify several shared policy recommendations, including upholding the rules-based international order, supporting Code of Conduct negotiations, maintaining a naval presence to signal commitment to stability, and assisting littoral states in developing maritime domain awareness capabilities.
This project was supported through a grant from the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung.
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How to Assess Nuclear ‘Threats’ in the Twenty-First Century
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George Perkovich argues that ‘nuclear threat’ needs to be defined with more care and nuance to enable decision makers to distinguish serious nuclear threats that demand a countervailing action from nuclear threats that are mere noise or allusion aiming to manipulate nuclear anxiety but do not pose a serious threat of nuclear attack. In short, the less precise our nuclear discourse, the more fear nuclear manipulators can elicit.
This paper is published simultaneously by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace here and by the Nautilus Institute here, with the support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
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APLN has over 170 members from 24 countries in the Asia-Pacific.
Each week, we feature their latest contributions
to global and regional security debates.
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| Marty Natalegawa, APLN Chair and former Foreign Minister of Indonesia, wrote in The Business Times that amid growing Asia-Pacific uncertainty, diplomacy, negotiation and dialogue remain essential, identifying three key regional dynamics that will continue to demand sustained diplomatic engagement. |
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Eunjung Lim, Professor at the Division of International Studies, Kongju National University (KNU), was interviewed by Arirang News, where she commented on the latest summit between the leaders of South Korea and Japan and discussed its implications.
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| C Uday Bhaskar, Director of the Society for Policy Studies (SPS), New Delhi, wrote for The Indian Express and argued that for India, remaining calmly engaged with the United States would be the most prudent course in this era of turbo-charged Trump turbulence. |
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| Hoang Thi Ha, Senior Fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, co-wrote an article with Aries A. Arugay examining what Southeast Asian countries can learn from the US’ recent actions in Venezuela, highlighting the importance of soberly assessing which comparisons are portable and realistic, and how to address regional vulnerabilities that might invite a similar interventionist logic. |
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