South China Sea Tensions: Insights from the Region
Weekly Newsletters

South China Sea Tensions: Insights from the Region

 

 

28 July 2026

This week, we are delighted to welcome Jongmoon Choi and Hwang Yong-soo to APLN’s Governing Board. Amid renewed hostilities in the South China Sea and rising China–Philippines tensions, we revisit publications from our research on maritime incidents and escalation in the Asia-Pacific. Experts from the Philippines and Japan examine regional responses to crisis management and to reduce the risk of escalation.

Our weekly roundup of member activities features analysis on Indonesia’s foreign policy under President Prabowo, the US-Saudi Arabia nuclear cooperation agreement, the Australia-India nuclear cooperation, and more.

We are delighted to welcome two distinguished new members to APLN’s Governing Board:

  • Ambassador Jongmoon Choi, Senior Consultant at Yoon & Yang LLC and Member of the Advisory Council at IISS (UK). Ambassador Choi previously served as ROK Second Vice Foreign Minister and ROK Ambassador to France.
  • Professor Hwang Yong-soo, Distinguished Professor for special affairs in KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School (KINGS).

We look forward to their engagement and contributions to APLN’s work programme and governance.

View APLN’s Governing Board

Resolute, Prudent and Inclusive: A Philippine perspective on improving stability in the South China Sea

Dianne Despi offers a Philippine perspective on the South China Sea dispute, noting that “conflict escalation is possible, but not inevitable”. Given the Philippines’ direct stake in the South China Sea, she highlights that different national agencies maintain varied assessments of potential escalation scenarios. To avert escalation, Manila is prioritising diplomatic initiatives alongside steady capability enhancements. Despi outlines nine strategies for preventing escalation through external partnerships, including championing regional initiatives, enforcing international maritime frameworks, and expanding multi-sectoral maritime domain awareness.

Read the full chapter

Maritime Cooperation between Non-Major Power Stakeholders in the South China Sea: Japan’s capability and limitations

Kyoko Hatakeyama examines how Japan has responded to crisis escalation in the South China Sea despite the constraints of its peace constitution. Rather than relying on direct military engagement, Tokyo has strengthened its role through bilateral diplomacy and an expanding web of minilateral partnerships. Looking ahead, she argues that consolidating these flexible security networks, and broadening participation to include European partners, will be essential to sustaining regional stability as questions grow over the future of US security commitments in the Indo-Pacific.

Read the full chapter

[Full Volume] External Stakeholders in the South China Sea: Linking security in Asia and Europe?

Bringing together expert perspectives from across the region, this volume examines how governments assess the risks of escalation and the strategies they are adopting to preserve regional stability. Contributors identify shared policy priorities, including strengthening the rules-based international order, advancing Code of Conduct negotiations, maintaining a credible maritime presence, and enhancing maritime domain awareness among littoral states.

APLN has over 180 members from 24 countries in the Asia-Pacific.
Each week, we feature their latest contributions
to global and regional security debates.

See all member activities

 

What has happened with Indonesia’s foreign policy over the past two years? | Decoding Indonesia

Marty Natalegawa, APLN Chair and former Foreign Minister of Indonesia, was interviewed by The Jakarta Post, where he discussed Indonesia’s foreign policy under President Prabowo, and the challenges facing ASEAN in an increasingly complex strategic environment.

‘We are still very much concerned about the remilitarization of Japan’: South Korean expert

Chung-in Moon, APLN Vice Chair, was interviewed by Global Times, where he argued that historical issues remain a key factor shaping South Korea’s approach to security cooperation with Japan, adding that Japan’s pursuit of closer ties with its neighbours should be accompanied by a sincere reflection on its wartime history.

Australian uranium fuels next phase in India’s n-programme

Manpreet Sethi, APLN Senior Research Adviser, co-wrote a commentary with Bhawna Budhwar for The Indian Express, emphasising that while the government assures access to nuclear fuel, the nascent private industry must adhere to the highest standards of safety, security, and safeguards.

Just what’s needed: one US friend, Australia, steps up help for another, Philippines

Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Resident Senior Fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), co-wrote a commentary with Malcolm Davis, arguing that Australia’s expanding defence cooperation with the Philippines strengthens regional deterrence, enhances burden-sharing, and reinforces long-term US engagement in the Asia-Pacific.

US–Saudi Nuclear Deal Explained: Why Enrichment Could Reshape the Middle East

Adil Sultan, Dean Faculty of Aerospace and Strategic Studies (FASS) at the Air University Islamabad, was featured on the StrafAsia Podcast, where he explained why a US–Saudi Arabia nuclear cooperation agreement could undermine global non-proliferation norms and trigger a new regional nuclear arms race.

The US just lowered its own nuclear bar

John Carlson, APLN Senior Associate Fellow and Senior Fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, wrote for the Lowy Institute and warned that weaker safeguards for Saudi Arabia would undermine both non-proliferation norms and Washington’s credibility in advocating stricter constraints on Iran.

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