Nuclear Fail-Safe: What US Audit Reports Reveal

9 Nov 2026 | APLN

9 November 2026

In this week’s edition, Frank O’Donnell draws on the publicly available titles of classified US Government Accountability Office reports to show the kinds of risks a nuclear fail-safe review might uncover. And Dongkeun Lee examines the growing security risks at the intersection of nuclear and maritime domains in the Asia-Pacific, emphasising the urgent need for enhanced regional cooperation on underwater security.

Our weekly roundup of member activities covers safeguards for Australia’s AUKUS submarines, the case for preserving normative restraint in outer space, the risks of a partial US-North Korea nuclear deal for South Korea and Japan, and Seoul’s expanding defence ties with Manila.

Nuclear Fail-Safe Reviews: Relevant Issues from US Government Accountability Office Reports

Frank O’Donnell examines how national nuclear fail-safe reviews can help identify vulnerabilities that could lead to unauthorised, accidental or mistaken nuclear use, especially as emerging technologies introduce new risks. Drawing on 51 publicly available titles of classified and sensitive US Government Accountability Office reports, the brief offers a rare glimpse of the issues a rigorous review might uncover, and a practical reference for countries considering reviews of their own.

Read the policy brief

Growing Underwater Nuclear Ambitions in Asia-Pacific

Dongkeun Lee explores how the rapid expansion of nuclear-powered submarines in the Asia-Pacific is intensifying the link between nuclear and maritime security. Expanding fleets of attack and ballistic missile submarines are changing maritime dynamics amid an intensifying US-China competition. New underwater technologies could threaten sea-based deterrents and raise the risk of escalation in a crisis. He calls for regional cooperation on submarine safety and incident management, and suggests South Korea could play a leading convening role.

Read the Korea Times column

APLN has over 190 members from 26 countries in the Asia-Pacific.
Each week, we feature their latest contributions
to global and regional security debates.

See all member activities

Safeguards for AUKUS submarines: an interview with John Carlson

John Carlson, APLN Senior Associate Fellow, was interviewed by Artem Astvatsaturov for the PIR Center, Moscow, on safeguards issues relating to Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS partnership. The interview covered the novel safeguards challenges raised by the AUKUS project and how Australia and the IAEA could provide assurance of non-diversion of nuclear material from submarine fuel.

Preserving Normative Restraint in Outer Space

Wu Riqiang, Professor of International Relations at Tsinghua University, wrote in Arms Control Today that abandoning restraint in outer space could fuel a space arms race and raise the risk of conflict. He calls on major space powers to preserve the taboo through commitments against destructive anti-satellite operations and sustained dialogue on space security.

Seoul fears being sidelined as US reaches out to North Korea

Eunjung Lim, Professor at the Division of International Studies, Kongju National University, was quoted in Deutsche Welle, where she commented that a partial nuclear deal with North Korea could weaken extended deterrence in South Korea and Japan, undermining non-proliferation efforts and fuelling calls for an independent South Korean nuclear deterrent.

How South Korea can play pivotal role in Philippines’ military modernisation drive

Dongkeun Lee, APLN Policy Fellow, was quoted in South China Morning Post, where he explained South Korea’s growing defence ties with the Philippines, driven by Manila’s demand for more advanced weapons systems and longstanding historical ties dating back to the Korean War.

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