This month, US President Donald Trump announced a surprise directive to resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, raising the possibility of renewed tests. At the same time, President Trump has also approved South Korea’s request to pursue nuclear-powered submarines. Together, these developments mark a significant moment for regional security, challenging the global norm against nuclear testing and the nuclear nonproliferation regime.

With concerns over growing nuclear risks once again in focus in the Asia-Pacific, APLN members and experts reiterated the need for continued dialogue between major powers. Frank O’Donnell pointed out that the absence of a sustained US-China nuclear dialogue is driving mutual misperceptions and arms buildups, recommending internal fail-safe reviews as a risk-reduction measure.

As part of our ongoing project Advancing Nuclear Fail-Safe in the Asia-Pacific, we co-hosted the second China-U.S. Nuclear Fail-Safe Dialogue in Beijing with the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) and Grandview Institution. Following the dialogue, we met with senior government officials and experts to exchange views on nuclear risk, regional stability, and lessons from recent crises, while identifying opportunities for continued collaboration.

In our publications this month, Haleema Saadia assessed the 2025 Pakistan–Saudi Arabia Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement, concluding it as politically expedient but strategically hollow. We also revisit an APLN Pulse from last year, in which eight experts shared their insights on how to reinforce existing nuclear testing moratoriums and reverse the cycle of spiralling nuclear tensions.

On a personal note, having recently returned from maternity leave, I would like to deeply thank my colleague Manpreet Sethi for stepping in so seamlessly and for her leadership and dedication to APLN’s work and mission. I am delighted to reconnect with all of you and look forward to continuing our engagement on these important issues.

Frank O’Donnell observes that the absence of a sustained US-China nuclear dialogue is driving mutual misperceptions and arms buildups. As an important risk-mitigation measure, he proposes that all nuclear-armed states conduct internal fail-safe reviews to independently assess the resilience of their nuclear forces and command-and-control systems against malfunctions, malign actors, or errors that could lead to accidental use. While such measures are critical for national and nuclear security, he notes that they still cannot substitute for direct high-level strategic dialogue to prevent catastrophic miscalculation.

On 11-12 October 2025, APLN, NTI and Grandview Institution (GVI) co-hosted the second China-US Nuclear Fail-Safe Dialogue in Beijing. Building on the conceptual discussions at the first year of the dialogue, this year’s meeting featured more practical, rigorous, and forward-looking exchanges. Delegates examined institutional frameworks, compared regulatory frameworks and risk environments, and discussed shared interests and potential cooperation pathways between China, the United States, and other nuclear-armed states, on fail-safe mechanisms.

The US delegation was led by Sam Nunn, former U.S. Senator, and Ernest Moniz, former U.S. Secretary of Energy. APLN members Kim Won-soo, Shen Dingli, Wu Riqiang, Senior Research Adviser Frank O’Donnell and Policy Fellow Fang Liu participated in the workshop. This project is supported by a grant from the NTI. 

The APLN and NTI delegations held a series of high-level meetings in Beijing. On 13 October, the delegation visited China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the International Department of the CPC, and held in-depth and candid discussions with senior officials. The delegation was accompanied by Ren Libo, President of the Grandview Institution, and Zhang Yi, Senior Research Fellow at the institute.

The delegation also met with experts from the China Institute of Atomic Energy (CIAE) and the Horizon Insights Center to discuss the safe and secure peaceful applications of nuclear science and technology, as well as perspectives from Chinese scientists on fail-safe reviews.

On 14 October, APLN members Li Bin and Wu Riqiang joined the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University (CISS) to meet with the NTI and APLN delegations. They discussed issues of mutual concern, including nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, as well as the evolving global and regional security landscape, while exploring avenues for continued collaboration.

On 16 October, the delegation travelled to Shanghai and met with experts from Fudan University and the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS). Experts exchanged perspectives on managing stability amid nuclear and global strategic shifts and discussed key lessons from the May 2025 India-Pakistan crisis and evaluated key challenges to prevent accidental escalation in the US-China relationship. Participants explored opportunities to strengthen future collaboration.

SIIS President and APLN member Chen Dongxiao, APLN Senior Research Adviser Frank O’Donnell and Policy Fellow Fang Liu attended the meeting. 

Haleema Saadia argues that the 2025 Pakistan–Saudi Arabia Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement is politically expedient but strategically hollow. She outlines Pakistan’s lack of capability, credibility, and aligned interests to provide a nuclear umbrella, and highlights the legal and nonproliferation constraints that would render any such guarantee controversial and potentially illegal. Ultimately, the pact serves short-term political ends without altering the regional nuclear or security order.

APLN asked eight experts whether new nuclear weapon tests remain a possibility. Francesca Giovannini, Dmitry Stefanovich, Manpreet Sethi, Sitara Noor, John Tilemann, Mitsuru Kitano, Sang Hyun Lee and Man-Sung Yim analyse whether the benefits of explosive nuclear testing outweigh the costs and discuss what can be done to eliminate the risks of nuclear testing.