Managing cross-theatre escalation: Perceptions, flashpoints, and constraints on strategic cooperation in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Share
This report draws on discussions among an international working group convened by the European Leadership Network (ELN) and the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network (APLN). The following experts contributed to the development of the report and endorse it in their personal capacities: Professor David Capie (Chair), Mr. Flynn Acworth, Professor Stephan Frühling, Ms. Mirna Galic, Dr. Gorana Grgić, Ambassador Masafumi Ishii, Dr. Saeme Kim, Dr. Julia Macdonald, Dr. Oliver Meier, Dr. Frank O’Donnell, Mr. Joel Petersson-Ivre, Ms. Shatabhisha Shetty, and Mr. Piotr Szymański.
Security in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific is increasingly interconnected. Russia’s war against Ukraine, tensions surrounding Taiwan, closer alignment between China and Russia, and North Korea’s growing role are intensifying concerns that crises in one theatre could generate instability in the other.
But cross-theatre escalation is not driven by geography or simultaneity alone. It depends on how events are perceived and acted upon under conditions of heightened uncertainty. Parallel developments may be wrongly assumed to reflect deliberate coordination, while genuine cooperation among Russia, China, and North Korea may be dismissed as coincidence.
This report provides the analytical foundation for a three-part series examining how NATO and the IP4 can prevent and manage crises. Drawing on working-group discussions and scenario-based exercises, it maps the structures, actors, flashpoints, and constraints that shape cross-theatre escalation.
Security in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific is increasingly interconnected, but cross-theatre escalation is shaped as much by perception as by material events. Cooperation will be most valuable before crises emerge, when governments can develop shared understandings, improve preparedness, and reduce the risk of misinterpretation.
The analysis finds that alliance signalling, divergent threat perceptions, and uncertainty over strategic intent can amplify crises across regions, while differences in political priorities and institutional constraints complicate coordinated responses. In navigating this environment, governments should strengthen consultation, intelligence-sharing, crisis communications, and supply-chain resilience before crises emerge, helping reduce the risks of miscalculation while preserving credible pathways for de-escalation. Detailed findings are available in the full report.
This report was produced by a working group convened by the European Leadership Network and the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network. It was sponsored by the NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme under grant SPS.MYP.G7935. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of NATO, the European Leadership Network, the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network, or the other institutions mentioned in the report. The ELN aims to encourage debates that will help develop Europe’s capacity to address the pressing foreign, defence, and security policy challenges of our time, in furtherance of its charitable purposes.
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